Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 4.121243 4.568423 5.106718 5.824826 6.798703 8.150815 10.360448
2025-01-05 3.457998 3.952927 4.594648 5.541660 7.031027 9.635990 16.263927
2025-01-12 3.070816 3.562186 4.223056 5.252031 7.018763 10.660198 25.694236
2025-01-19 2.838424 3.330563 4.012081 5.121809 7.184167 12.235976 70.243542
2025-01-26 2.742980 3.266706 4.020527 5.326877 8.065788 17.401589 NaN
2025-02-02 2.695369 3.260103 4.107231 5.683167 9.543778 35.455175 NaN
2025-02-09 2.594228 3.163415 4.036354 5.726677 10.297635 89.476419 NaN
2025-02-16 2.513584 3.088680 3.989556 5.804672 11.271685 NaN NaN
2025-02-23 2.388290 2.936906 3.798085 5.540110 10.847002 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 2.322787 2.871869 3.746938 5.569979 11.637399 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 2.256940 2.801650 3.679608 5.550277 12.246665 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 2.177101 2.705132 3.558519 5.386823 12.053891 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 2.148407 2.689882 3.584245 5.588395 14.212504 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 2.062317 2.579574 3.431542 5.329451 13.308338 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 1.980712 2.473385 3.281000 5.062281 12.270522 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 1.923496 2.403827 3.192985 4.941745 12.145539 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 1.909685 2.402387 3.227453 5.131443 14.409386 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 1.910554 2.424248 3.306414 5.459501 19.467186 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 1.879845 2.392812 3.281993 5.499430 22.049805 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 1.854098 2.368305 3.268980 5.570934 26.222332 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 1.799913 2.294631 3.156156 5.328012 22.834343 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 1.774237 2.267636 3.133397 5.355491 26.009354 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 1.745768 2.234899 3.097391 5.337367 28.490516 NaN NaN